Talk Description
Institution: Chris O'Brien Lifehouse - NSW, Australia
Aims
Head and neck cancers (HNCs) reflect a diverse group of malignancies, each with different aetiologies and outcomes. In this study, we aimed to examine the trends in incidence and mortality rates for HNCs in Australia and to project these rates to 2044.
Methodology
HNCs were categorised into the following groups based on clinical characteristics: Human papilloma virus (HPV)-related oropharynx, non-HPV oropharynx, oral tongue, other oral cavity, lip, salivary glands, nasopharynx, larynx and hypopharynx, nasal cavity and paranasal sinus, and other HNCs. Joinpoint regression was used to examine changes in HNC incidence and mortality rates from 1982-2019 and age-period-cohort models were used to project rates to 2044, using national data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Rates were age‐standardised to the Segi World standard population.
Results
Observed trends in HNC incidence rates differ across groups. Increases were observed for HPV-related oropharynx, non-HPV oropharynx, oral tongue, salivary glands, and other HNCs, while rates decreased for other oral cavity, lip, and larynx and hypopharynx. Most of these trends are expected to continue to 2044, with the exception of HPV-related oropharynx, which appears to have plateaued in the mid-2020s. Mortality rates for most groups decreased from 1982 to 2019. HNC mortality rates are expected to continue decline or remain relatively stable from 2020 to 2044 across all groups. A total of 167,476 (117,248 males, 45,499 females) HNC diagnoses and 35,967 (26,767 males, 9,478 females) HNC deaths are expected over the 25-year projection period from 2020-2044.
Conclusion
These findings fill an important gap in understanding the past trends and future burdens for HNCs by clinically similar groupings, reflecting different aetiologies, treatment paradigms, and outcomes. These estimates can inform future priorities for research, interventions and service planning to achieve better outcomes for HNCs.
Presenters
Authors
Authors
Dr Qingwei Luo - , Dr Rebecca Venchiarutti - , Prof Michael David - , A/Prof Megan Smith - , Prof Dianne O'Connell - , Mr Paul Grogan - , Prof Jonathan Clark - , Prof Karen Canfell -